Back in August, Edward McQuarrie and William Bernstein wrote an excellent article on Advisor Perspective about some of the implications of the ~3% inflation-protected yields currently available in the long-term treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) market: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/08/13/long-tips-yield-time-to-buy
Round Table’s Chief Investment Officer Nathan Dutzmann decided to tack on a few thoughts in a response article, also on Advisor Perspectives: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/09/28/tips-yields-3-awesome-principles-dont-change
A couple central ideas:
- When TIPS rates rise, TIPS become more attractive. However, there is a decent case to be made that the attractiveness comes in the form of being able to spend less of your money on TIPS, not more, since the same real income goal can now be accomplished with a smaller up-front investment.
- Regardless of the absolute level of TIPS yields, a rational market should price stocks such that (A) they have a meaningfully positive risk premium in expectation (i.e., on average across all possible futures) on all time horizons, but (B) that premium is in exchange for genuine and non-negligible risk of underperforming safer assets, most notably TIPS, on all horizons as well.
DISCLOSURES: All content is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be considered an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any particular security, product, or service. Round Table Investment Strategies (Round Table) does not offer specific investment recommendations in this presentation. This article should not be considered a comprehensive review or analysis of the topics discussed in the article. Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Despite efforts to be accurate and current, this article may contain out-of-date information; Round Table will not be under an obligation to advise of any subsequent changes related to the topics discussed in this article. Round Table is not an attorney or accountant and does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice. This article is impersonal and does not take into account individual circumstances. An individual should not make personal financial or investment decisions based solely upon this article. This article is not a substitute for or the same as a consultation with an investment adviser in a one-on-one context whereby all the facts of the individual’s situation can be considered in their entirety and the investment adviser can provide individualized investment advice or a customized financial plan.